TAC Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
TransAlta Corp is not a clear buy right now for a Beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to deploy. The stock has some supportive fundamentals and positive analyst sentiment, but the current technical setup is neutral, the proprietary trading signals show no immediate entry signal, and recent price action is weak today. My direct view: hold off for now rather than buy immediately.
TAC is trading at 12.635, down 2.39% in a weak regular market. Technically, the picture is neutral to slightly mixed: RSI_6 is 48.5, showing no momentum edge, MACD histogram is still positive at 0.0397 but is contracting, and moving averages are converging, which usually signals a lack of strong trend direction. Price is sitting just below the pivot at 12.736, with immediate support at 12.392 and resistance at 13.08. The short-term setup does not show a strong breakout or oversold bounce signal. The stock trend model also implies only modest near-term upside.
Recent Q1 results were constructive: adjusted EPS rose sharply to C$0.60 from C$0.10 last year, free cash flow was strong at C$102M, and management reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$950M to C$1.05B. Analyst coverage remains broadly positive, with multiple Buy/Outperform ratings maintained, and National Bank recently upgraded the stock to Outperform citing double-digit growth potential through 2029, Alberta net load growth, and potential recovery in power prices. Options sentiment is also bullish, with heavy call dominance. There are no significant insider, hedge fund, or congress trading negatives in the data.
Revenue declined to C$565M in the latest quarter, and adjusted EBITDA in hydro, wind, and solar segments decreased. Two major firms lowered price targets on the same day, including TD Securities to C$26 from C$27 and BMO to C$25 from C$27, which shows some moderating expectations. The stock is also down on the day, and recent technical momentum is not strong. No recent influential political or congress buying support is available in the data.
Latest quarter: Q1. Financial performance was mixed but overall solid. Adjusted EPS improved materially to C$0.60 from C$0.10 year over year, indicating much better profitability. Free cash flow stayed strong at C$102M, which is a positive for long-term investors. However, revenue fell to C$565M and segment EBITDA was weaker in hydro, wind, and solar. Even with those pressures, the company maintained FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance of C$950M to C$1.05B, which supports the long-term thesis.
Analyst sentiment is still positive overall, but target cuts show some caution. TD Securities lowered its target to C$26 from C$27 and kept Buy; BMO lowered to C$25 from C$27 and kept Outperform; CIBC lowered to C$24 from C$25 and kept Outperformer. On the positive side, National Bank upgraded TransAlta to Outperform from Sector Perform with a C$22 target, citing double-digit growth through 2029 and improving power-price expectations. Wall Street pros are generally constructive on the name, but the recent downward revisions in targets suggest the upside is still being reassessed rather than re-rated higher.
